Tuesday, August 24, 2010

What are the odds of a husband and wife both dieing on Christmas eve but different years?

I know a lady who passed away 18 years ago on Christmas Eve and just 2 weeks ago her husband who was still living died on Christmas Eve. Anyway what are the odds? Mathematically?What are the odds of a husband and wife both dieing on Christmas eve but different years?
There are two ways to answer this. First, start with the lady who died on Christmas Eve. The chances of her husband also dying on Christmas Eve are mathematically about 1 / 365; statistically, a bit greater than that as the elderly do tend to die on or near holidays or anniversaries.





The chances of two living people dying on the same day but on different years is approximately 1 / 365虏.What are the odds of a husband and wife both dieing on Christmas eve but different years?
If you assume deaths occur randomly throughout the year:





The odds of two people dying on the same Calendar Day (disregarding Leap Years) is 1/365.





The first person dies on whatever day it happens to be.


The chances of the second persons dying on that same day some years later are simply 1/365.





If you pre-specify the day, such as Dec 24 or July 4 or Feb 14 or their wedding anniversary or whatever day you choose, then the chances are 1/365 for each of them, and the result is 1/365^2 or about 0.0000075.


That is roughly 75 in 10,000,000 or 1 in 133,225.





In fact, though, deaths are not completely randomly distributed.


Many old people die around their birthday, either trying to make it ';just one more year'; or just failing to do so.





It is also possible that sadness about the anniversary of a spouse's death could contribute to the second one dying on the same day, but that is pure speculation on my part.





The same thing applies to births, too, of course.


I know two brothers who have the same birthday, two years apart,


and every so often there is a story in the news about some woman


giving birth on her own birthday, which also happens to be her mother's birthday, too (or something similar). Of course in those


cases, induced labor or Caesarean sections can lead to 'cheating',


but overall the odds of something happening on a particular day of


the year are just 1/365.
You would have to work out the odds of her passing on Christmas eve, and multiply it by the odds of him passing on christmas eve. That will give you the probability of them both passing at the same time.

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